Supporters of South Africa’s captive lion industry often claim that Bovine Tuberculosis (bTB) is a major threat to South Africa’s wild lion population, especially lions in the Kruger National Park (KNP). Wildlife Ranching South Africa (WRSA) have even alleged that an estimated 80% of Kruger’s lions are infected by bTB, risking a population-wide collapse.
Some captive industry associations have even claimed that captive-bred lions present the perfect solution to counter the deaths of wild lions from bTB. But first, it’s necessary to understand if Kruger’s lion population is indeed in danger from bTB based on available scientific evidence.
Disease has been considered a long-term threat to free-roaming wild lion populations, especially bTB in Kruger and Hluhluwe-iMfolozi Park. Bovine TB spreads across lion populations through infected prey species, particularly buffalo and kudu, according to a PhD study in 2015.
In 2017, the prevalence of bTB infection in lions was an estimated 54% in the southern region of KNP. Research from 2023 suggests that while bTB can impact an individual lion’s health, mortality, and an animal’s ability to hunt and reproduce, it is difficult to determine the impact at a population level. In particular, since extensive ecosystems, such as Kruger, are also affected by drought, long-term environmental changes, and other diseases, there are other factors that impact lion mortality.
A 2015 and 2017 study on the prevalence of bTB in Kruger lions confirms that more research is needed on the impact of bTB on a population level. SANParks ecologist Dr Sam Ferreira and lion biologist Dr Paul Funston concluded in their 2010 paper that the Kruger lion population is stable and the effects of bTB are minimal, particularly on a population level.
In response to a Parliamentary Question in December 2024, the former Minister of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment, Dr Dion George, stated that “there are currently no visible effects of bTB on the viability of the KNP’s lion population. Prey biomass rather than bTB strongly influences lion survival in the KNP.”
He continues, “while previous forecasts predicted slight long-term declines in the KNP lion population due to TB, these predictions did not hold. Lions displayed resilience, with stable numbers even during droughts, shifting prey preferences to buffalo and kudu.”
In 2024, the Ministerial Task Team states in their final report that “the prevailing view amongst carnivore specialists, in terms of the suitability and necessity of using captive-bred lions for conservation purposes, is that the lack of a safe and suitable habitat for rewilding and population restoration purposes and the adequate availability of wild lions, makes the use of captive-bred lions redundant.”
Former Minister George added in his response to the parliamentary question in December 2024, “there is no need to introduce lions (especially captive-bred lions) into the KNP as the lion population is stable and lions currently occupy most of the available habitat in the KNP.”
The bottom line is that scientists have established that while bTB does impact lions in the Kruger, the effect of the disease does not impact the species at a population level, as many in the commercial captive industry have claimed.
The Kruger lion population is not at risk of dying out, and captive-bred lions would not need to be used to supplement the population. Even IF we had to supplement the Kruger lion population, the availability of South African wild lions is ample and hence there would be absolutely no need to use captive-bred lions, as identified by the Ministerial Task Team.
The captive industry’s claims should not be taken at face value, as these purely suit their narrative, and require careful scientific and public scrutiny.




